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Near-Future Ocean Modeling continued

alaska

Numerical Lagrangian drifters from the computer SALMON model. The tails are ten days long and the small wiggles are due to the semidurnal tide. The colors show the depth, with dark red at the surface and the blues below 100 meters. The black contours are isobaths.

The ACC, which extends for more than 1500 km along the coast of Alaska, is one of the strongest and most persistent coastal currents in the world. Driven by both wind and buoyancy, this current directly influences the addition and distribution of freshwater, biota and pollutants around the Gulf of Alaska by confining the freshwater nearshore and modifying coastal sea levels. In comparison, the transport of water through Shelikoff Strait is equivalent to the flow from about six Mississippi Rivers.

Run at a resolution of three kilometers, Hedstrom’s model is aligned and nested within two larger models: the North Pacific ocean grid model running at a resolution of 20 to 40 kilometers, and the Northeast Pacific (NEP) model running at 10 kilometers, both of which were developed by Hedstrom (ARSC), and Al Hermann and Liz Dobbins of the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL).

Data relating to atmospheric weather conditions that affect ocean circulation is from the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS). COADS monthly mean fields were used in early test runs for the surface forcing—the net sea surface heat flux and wind stress response to atmospheric conditions. Hedstrom predicts that future runs will be forced with daily winds from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), or possibly the 5th-generation Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5). Eventually, runs may combine ROMS with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, a fully compressible, three-dimensional, non-hydrostatic, cloud-resolving mesoscale model designed to simulate phenomena on scales of 1 km to 10 km.

Mike Foreman of the Institute of Ocean Sciences in British Columbia, Canada supplied the tidal-forcing data. Because tides cause the movement of sediment along the littoral zone of the coast, they strongly influence the form and structure of coastal deltas, tidal flats, barrier islands and wave energy along the beach profile, as well as impact the mixing of salt and fresh water in estuaries.

The freshwater boundary conditions for Hedstrom’s model are taken from Tom Royer’s work on deep ocean and coastal hydrography and currents. Currently with Old Dominion University in Virginia, and formerly with UAF for many years, Royer’s work led to the identification of the impact that freshwater discharge has in driving the Alaska Coastal Current (ACC). It’s something like squirting a fast stream of water from a hose into another, slower-moving body of water. As the hose water mingles with the slower-moving water, instabilities occur on the outer edges of the stream, causing eddies.

One way to record the impact freshwater discharge has on the ACC is through the use of mechanical drifter buoys designed to follow currents and collect physical data about the ocean. These Lagrangian drifter buoys are based on a system in which two large bodies, Sun-Earth or Earth-Moon, are the points to which a small third body, the buoy, will maintain a fixed position relative to the other two. Named for French astronomer Louis Lagrange, this type of buoy provides scientists with direct observations of ocean surface currents. A unique feature of Hedstrom’s SALMON Project model is that it can track, from one processor to another, computer simulations of numerical Lagrangian drifters along the coast of Alaska. The model uses 440 numerical drifters broken into groups of twenty and set at depths of 5 and fifty meters.

The latest model run has simulated three climatological years of ocean circulation in the northern Gulf of Alaska. The numerical drifters indicated highly variable flow and small-scale eddies between the nearshore ACC and the farther offshore Alaska Stream. These eddies appear to be seasonal, increasing during the summer when the fresh-water influx is strongest. Observational data collected along one transect line has previously shown that the ACC and the parallel Slope Current, an area where salinity is increased just inside the Alaska Stream, generally flow continuously in one direction, while another strong current consistently flows between them in the opposite direction. However, because the physical data were observed from one transect line, and only sampled every other month, the eddy flow was not apparent.

To test the previously collected eddy flow data against the results of Hedstrom’s model run, the SALMON Project, working in conjunction with the Northeast Pacific GLOBEC (Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics) program, undertook one of the most comprehensive surveys ever conducted in Alaska waters. In May and July-August 2003, the GLOBEC Mesoscale Survey was launched to map physical and biological oceanographic characteristics associated with the ACC, focusing particular interest on the continental shelf region south of Seward, Alaska.

During Part One of the survey conducted in May aboard the Alpha Helix, an oceanographic ship operated by UAF’s Institute of Marine Science, researchers towed a vehicle platform, called a SeaSoar™, which was used to deploy a wide range of oceanographic monitoring equipment. Because the SeaSoar™ is capable of undulating from the surface to depths of 500 meters at tow speeds of up to 12 knots, the SALMON team was able to obtain data much faster and with more efficiency than in the past. They were also able to get five times the resolution of the front they were surveying than is normally achieved through the use of traditional hydro-cast methods, which take longer and do not supply data while the ship is moving from one station to the next.

“ We had thought the return flow was permanent, but Hedstrom’s model showed that it changes over time,” said Dave Musgrave, physical oceanographer with the Institute of Marine Science (IMS) at UAF. “In the May survey, with the help of SeaSoar™, we found that when we came back to the same location for another cruise track seven days after the first track, the previous flow had completely disappeared. Our new observations proved that Kate’s model was acting correctly.”


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